by Joe Reddington
Let us consider the popular (and backed by the data) narrative. Large numbers of former conservative voters are ‘defecting’ to UKIP, which they believe better represents their views. UKIPs policies are somewhat significantly to the right of the conservatives, even if there is a perception difference, and it is clear from the polling data that it’s a certain type of conservative that is switching.
The average conservative voter in 2015 is younger, more urban, less likely to own a house, more likely to be non-white, and more likely to have a degree than the average conservative voter of 2010 (see here, p15). We can then infer that they are also less pension-obsessed, more much likely to be pro-(at least neutral on) Europe, much more likely to favour things like equal rights to marriage, adoption and social care than the average conservative voter of 2010.
Now answer this. Given the group that is *leaving* the Conservative party, who are the remainder? We see that the Conservative leadership has lurched somewhat to the right in an attempt (and it may be working to a small extent) to stop the bleeding. But it remains to see what happens if it becomes clear that those voters are staying with UKIP. The thought that should be keeping Labour strategists up at night is this: what if the new Conservatives listen to their thinned down membership and move left?
Not far, but it doesn’t have to be far. If they keep their tax policies but change around their spending proposals in favour of a different group of beneficiaries: childcare, NHS, and prison reform, some commitments on human rights and internet freedoms – then they stand to capture the votes of large chunks of the middle classes. The middle classes, by the way, that reliably turn out to vote, that hold the balance of power, and that are much more influenced by the policies than the rhetoric. More to the point, they are exactly the votes that Labour need if they are going to return to power.
Even at the rhetorical level – many of the policies that the conservatives can be presented in a range of ways. By habit, conservative policies are pitched at the mindset of a Telegraph reader (average age of subscriber: 61). They’d have a much better shot with the younger floating voters if they highlighted those parts of their tax policies that focused on small businesses rather than of pensioners; if they presented the parts of their immigration policy as being about economic agility rather than security; and if they presented technology related policy in a way that made any sense at all to people who actually use the internet.
Labour need to be very careful. The legacy of UKIP may well be that we have a centrist Conservative government for decades.
Joe Reddington blogs on disability and technology issues at joereddington.com